Merrill Lynch sees $1,000 gold by 2009

Analysts also forecast silver prices as well

By Tom Stundza -- Purchasing, 2/20/2008 9:36:00 AM

Merrill Lynch analysts Michael Jalonen and Jeffrey Schok have increased their gold price forecasts to an annual average of $1,000/troy ounce by 2009, citing stagnant production and robust jewelry demand. They also are predicting increased silver prices. Supporting their view is the fact that these precious metals are selling at a three-week high in Asia as a rise in crude oil and a weakening U.S. dollar boosted the appeal of bullion as a hedge against accelerating consumer prices.

The analysts now expect gold to average $925/oz this year and $1,000/oz in 2009 (up from $750/oz and $800/oz respectively), saying in a Mineweb.com report that “the higher gold prices should be supported by positive supply-demand fundamentals.” The analysts expect global mine production to be stable in 2008, “chiefly as a result of lower than anticipated supply from new mines and lower grades at maturing operations," they wrote.

The Merrill Lynch analysts also raised their 2008 silver price forecast from $14/oz to $15.50 since demand will outpace the expected world output increase by as much as 5%. “For 2008, we are forecasting a 5% increase in year-on-year mine output to 675 million ounces as several new mines ramp up (San Cristobal and San Bartolome in Bolivia, Palmerejo, Alamo Dorado, Ocampo and Delores in Mexico), and Manatial Espejo in Argentina,” they write. “Looming in the future is the giant Pascua mine in Chile.”