New power generation capacity will be needed by 2030

By Tom Stundza -- Purchasing, 4/23/2008 9:17:00 AM

Even with widespread purchases of energy-saving appliances and better-insulated homes, the U.S. will still need to build at least 151 gigawatts of new electricity generation — enough to power 75 million homes — by 2030, says a study by Brattle Group for the Edison Electric Institute, the power industry's trade group.

The projects, aimed at meeting new demand and replacing aging plants, would cost $457 billion. The biggest wave of utility construction in a generation would also require $900 billion for copper and aluminum coaxial cable lines to transport the power.

Power demand is expected to surge 30% by 2030 as the U.S. population grows and more consumers buy energy-thirsty flat-screen televisions and other electronics, according to the government’s Energy Information Administration. That projection accounts for current utility programs that give consumers rebates for purchases of efficient appliances. It also figures in a recently passed federal law that toughens appliance standards and phases out the incandescent light bulb by 2020. A USA Today report indicates that additional utility efficiency efforts could cut power demand in 2030 by 7% to 11% compared with what would be achieved by current measures—citing a second study by Brattle and the Electric Power Research Institute, which is partly funded by utilities.

However, Diane Munns, executive director at Edison, insists that utilities must plan for substantial new generation and transmission to assure reliability. “Achieving efficiency improvements going significantly beyond those already in the pipeline will be a major undertaking,” Munns says. “No matter how you slice it, we’ll have to build significant new generation to ensure that we meet demand.”